The decisions made by Royston Lim and his team at Asia Alpha Management (AAM) will have an impact on AAM’s future investment performance. Let’s analyze each decision and its potential effects:
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Long Position: Telstra (TLS.AX) - By trimming the position to 1.25% of capital and setting a hard stop at AUD$3.00, Lim is managing the near-term risk of further weakness in Telstra’s stock. - If their research on the rollout of 5G technology is correct and the stock reaches their updated fundamental price target of AUD7.00, AAM could potentially see a significant increase in the value of their position. - However, if the stock continues to weaken and reaches the stop price of AUD$3.00, AAM will close the position and potentially incur a loss. - The impact on AAM’s future investment performance will depend on whether Telstra’s stock performs well or continues to weaken. If the stock performs well, AAM’s performance will improve. If the stock weakens, AAM’s performance may be negatively affected.
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Short Position: iRobot (IRBT.US) - By covering some stock and leaving a 1.50% position, Lim is reducing the exposure to the extreme volatility involved in the short position. - Adding a strict stop-loss order to cover the rest at US$70.00 limits the potential losses if the stock price increases. - If iRobot eventually lowers guidance as expected by AAM, the stock price may decrease, resulting in a potential 25-30% return or more. - However, if the stock price increases and reaches the stop price of US$70.00, AAM will cover the rest of the position and potentially incur a loss. - The impact on AAM’s future investment performance will depend on whether iRobot’s stock price decreases as expected. If it does, AAM’s performance will improve. If the stock price increases, AAM’s performance may be negatively affected.
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Long Position: Quanta Computer (2382.TW) - By trimming the position to 2.0% of capital, AAM is reducing its exposure to the continued weakness in Quanta’s stock. - If there are no fundamental reasons behind the stock’s weakness and it should be higher based on historical correlation to Apple stock, AAM may see a potential increase of 10-15% in the stock’s value. - However, if the weakness in Quanta’s stock continues, AAM’s performance may be negatively affected. - The impact on AAM’s future investment performance will depend on whether Quanta’s stock price increases as expected. If it does, AAM’s performance will improve. If the stock price continues to weaken, AAM’s performance may be negatively affected.
Overall, the decisions made by Lim and his team have the potential to improve AAM’s future investment performance if the stocks perform as expected. However, there is also the risk of potential losses if the stocks do not perform as anticipated. The impact on AAM’s performance will depend on the outcome of these positions and the overall market conditions.
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